Real Estate Seasonality — What the Data Shows
| Season | Buyer Activity | Seller Activity | Who Benefits? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring (Feb–May) | Very High | Very High | Sellers — more competition |
| Summer (Jun–Aug) | Moderate | Declining | Buyers — fewer competitors |
| Fall (Sep–Nov) | Rising | Rising | Balanced |
| Winter (Dec–Jan) | Low | Low | Buyers — motivated sellers |
Israel's real estate market follows predictable seasonal patterns. Tax Authority data from 2022–2024 reveals a consistent cycle: gradual rise from January, peak between March and April, summer slowdown, recovery in September–November, and a December spike driven by year-end tax planning and deferred closings. Critical context: seasonality is a starting point, not a destiny. Interest rates, government housing supply, geopolitical events — all of these carry far more weight than the calendar month.
Spring (February–May) — The Golden Season for Sellers in Bik'at Ono
The data is clear: Q1 accounts for approximately 26% of Israel's annual real estate transaction volume. Families aiming to relocate before the school year (September) begin their search as early as February–March. In Kiryat Ono and Ganei Tikva — two cities that serve as a primary destination for families seeking a Tel Aviv alternative — spring is peak demand season. **What this means for sellers:** List your property in February–March. Early market entry lets you capitalize on peak demand before inventory expands. In Kiryat Ono's relatively tight market (~522 transactions/year), the right timing can be the difference between a top-dollar sale and a 'reasonable' deal. **What this means for buyers:** Spring is the most competitive time. If you're buying in this season, come prepared: pre-approved financing, fast decision-making, a strong first offer. Spring is not the time to negotiate hard — it's the time to secure a property you love.
Summer and Fall — Two Seasons with Very Different Dynamics
| Month | National Transactions (2022–2024 avg) | Market Character |
|---|---|---|
| June | ~8,000 | Tapering |
| July | ~6,500 | Summer Low |
| August | ~5,800 | Summer Low |
| September | ~7,200 | Recovery |
| October | ~8,500 | Rising |
| November | ~8,800 | Fall Peak |
**Summer (June–August): A Buyer's Window of Opportunity** Vacations, summer camps, and travel costs reduce active buyer counts significantly. Sellers listing in summer are often doing so out of necessity — divorce, inheritance, job relocation — creating an opportunity for focused buyers. In Ganei Tikva and Kiryat Ono, where a significant portion of buyers are young couples and growing families, summer creates a split: residents already in Bik'at Ono upgrading locally continue searching, while out-of-area buyers typically pause for vacation. **Fall (September–November): A Reinvigorated Market** Post-holidays (Rosh Hashana, Sukkot, Simchat Torah), the market revives. Families who didn't close in summer return to search. Sellers who didn't sell in spring become more flexible on price. This period frequently brings resolution to stuck transactions and motivated-seller opportunities.
Winter (December–January) — A Quiet Market with Serious Buyers
December 2024 surprised the market: 11,090 transactions — a 53% jump from November. A significant portion reflects year-end tax optimization and deferred closings, but it also demonstrates that December is not a dead season. January 2026, by contrast, recorded 6,933 transactions — a 9% decline from January 2025. January is indeed January: a reduced market, but those in it are serious. **Advantages of buying in winter:** - Sellers listing in winter typically need to sell — greater negotiating leverage for buyers - Less competition for specific properties you have targeted - Agents and attorneys are less busy — faster processing times **Disadvantages:** - Less inventory — the property you wanted may simply not be on the market - Less attractive presentation conditions (rain, dry gardens) - In Kiryat Ono, where properties are often shown with gardens and balconies, summer presentations tend to be far more appealing
Interest Rates, Economic Cycles, and Personal Factors — What Matters More Than Season
The Bank of Israel held the rate at 4.0% in January 2026. Projections point to a drop to 3.5% by end of 2026. Every 0.5% rate decrease translates to roughly 300–400 NIS less per month on a 1.5M NIS average mortgage. That is a far greater impact than the season you choose. **What matters more than season:** 1. **Your purchasing power** — interest rate, loan-to-value ratio, income. If rates drop in summer, summer becomes an excellent time to buy — regardless of seasonality. 2. **Your personal timeline** — first grade enrollment, a new child, divorce, inheritance — these define your schedule, not the calendar. 3. **The specific property cycle** — a property that came to market today, in any season, is worth evaluating. A property waiting for next spring is waiting for stronger competition. 4. **Geopolitical context** — the 2023–2024 conflict affected the market in ways that defied seasonal predictions. The real estate market responds to reality, not just seasons.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in Kiryat Ono and Ganei Tikva Today
Bik'at Ono — Kiryat Ono, Ganei Tikva, Yehud-Monosson — presents unique dynamics. An average price of ~3.3M NIS per apartment in Kiryat Ono (nadlan.gov.il data, 2024) means the target audience is primarily families with children, upwardly mobile couples, and upgraders coming from Tel Aviv. **If you are selling today (March–May 2026):** You are in the market at the right time. Spring is arriving, rates are expected to fall, and family demand for the area remains stable. Prepare your property for optimal presentation — minor renovations, fresh paint, a tidy garden — and list immediately. **If you are buying today:** Competition is rising, but rates remain elevated. Consider: does it make sense to wait for the rate cut at end of 2026? If you are flexible — perhaps. If you have a timeline (first grade, second child, expiring lease) — do not wait. Kiryat Ono prices are not expected to drop meaningfully; a rate decrease will stimulate demand and may push prices higher. The real question is not 'when' — it is **what is the right property**. Shmuel Pinchassi, specializing in Bik'at Ono, can help you analyze your personal situation and make a data-driven decision — not just a calendar-based one.